A Fossil Free Future

To analyze how each scenario affected outcomes important to Impact 2045, we created a list of indicators to use to “score” our scenarios. These include greenhouse gas emissions, energy consumption, cost of implementation to municipalities, and indicators related to the key LIDAC burdens we identified as significant in New Haven County. Linguistic isolation and unemployment were represented as workforce development needs. The need to address asthma was captured in the category of air quality, and energy costs and housing costs were considered as their own standalone indicators.

On a scale of -3 to +3, each scenario was ranked across these indicators to capture the outcomes present under different conditions. The arrows in show whether an indicator increases or decreases in a scenario, and the color indicates whether the change is beneficial (green) or harmful (red). This analysis helped us understand the needs and challenges in each scenario in relation to our strategies.

The energy future of Connecticut looks bright.

Barriers to offshore wind development during the early 2020s, such as high interest rates and political backlash (Webster, 2023), have receded as more favorable conditions to offshore wind deployment have taken form. Coinciding with this is the success of the three state wind agreement, a joint project between Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and Connecticut that aimed to secure 6,000 megawatts of power from offshore wind (CT DEEP, 2023). With demand for power locked in via the 3 state agreement, developers overcome funding concerns that had developed in the early 2020s. As a result of these developments, Connecticut has achieved its goal of procuring 2,000 MW of power from offshore wind by 2030 (Connecticut House of Representatives, 2019), while the grid moves towards an even split between offshore wind and nuclear energy from Millstone Power Plant. Therefore, electrification efforts in other sectors, such as transportation and buildings, can be supported by a nearly fully decarbonized grid. Moreover, new industry based around the development of offshore wind fuels employment growth in New Haven County, particularly for those already involved in precision engineering services (Connecticut Department of Economic and Community Development, 2023). Moreover, collaborations between workforce apprenticeship programs and offshore wind industries have become the norm (Connecticut House of Representatives, 2019). 

As offshore wind progresses, so do economic opportunities in other renewable energy sectors. Job growth in key areas, such as energy efficiency and building retrofitting, spur employment opportunities and grow the  economic base for the region. Moreover, technological advancements have made certain unattainable solutions now feasible while costs continue to decrease for renewable technologies. Among these is hydrogen fuel, which becomes more attainable as production of hydrogen shifts away from fossil fuels and towards processes such as electrolysis, direct solar water splitting, and biomass conversion (IEA, 2019; EPA, 2023). This supports further decarbonization efforts in the transportation sector, as carbon free hydrogen fuel for heavy duty vehicles becomes a legitimate fuel source. Other renewable technologies, such as heat pumps on site, solar, and electric vehicles become more attractive to consumers as technology advances and incentives overcome equity hurdles, lowering costs (Ramanan et al., 2021; Heeter et al., 2021 ; IEA, 2022). Much like offshore wind, employment within the region increases around these advances. The pendulum of the green economy is now in full swing.

Underlying public opinion fails to shift away from certain consumption, transportation, and land use preferences. For example, waste issues persist at the residential and commercial levels as consumption remains high (need waste citation). Moreover, rural and urban disparities in transit access continue. Existing north/south and east/west rail make New Haven a transit hub, while bus service continues to mostly serve existing dense areas. In New Haven, BRT along certain routes increases frequency and reliability (City of New Haven, 2019), while other aspects of the region's current transit planning approach are supported and continue into the future. However, outlying suburban and rural areas with low density and high travel times continue to prefer personal vehicles for transportation. 

In conclusion, the scenario represents a future with transformed infrastructure, where legislation and technology support the growth of a green grid and green industries, but underlying habits related to consumption and transportation remain embedded in the status quo.